So far, the mainstream media, when discussing the so-called "Junior Tuesday" March 4 states (Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont), has missed a big story: The Texas primary isn't just a primary, it's a primary-caucus hybrid.
Or as I'm going to call it, The Texas Prius (
primary + cauc
us =
prius).
"You got your primary in my caucus." "You got your caucus in my primary."Why is this a big story? Because the Clinton camp is already spinning away any gains Barack Obama may make in the post-Super Tuesday February states by staking their claims on the big three of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. On the surface, Camp Clinton has a point as these are all delegate-rich states where Hillary Clinton currently leads in the polls.
But by their own admission when discounting Obama's victories today in Washington and Nebraska, Senator Obama tends to do better in caucus states. So if the pattern holds up, any lead Senator Clinton may have in the polls (and hasn't she led in
every state's polls a month before they vote?) could be offset by his support in the caucus portion of The Texas Prius.
Now might be a good time to explain how The Texas Prius works. If only I understood it. But here are a few links to people who understand it far better than I do:
Burnt Orange ReportTexans for ObamaThe FieldThis is what I understand. Out of the 193 pledged delegates up for grabs in Texas, 126 are determined by the primary vote and 67 are decided based on the caucus vote. That means almost a third of Texas' pledged delegates will be picked in a caucus setting.
What's more, anybody who's caucusing is essentially voting twice. That's right, TWICE! Because in order to vote in the caucus, you have to first vote in the primary.
So, if Obama's ground support is as strong in Texas as it has been elsewhere (he's taken nine caucuses to her three - if you count American Samoa, her razor-thin victory in New Mexico, and his one delegate lead in Nevada as wins for Senator Clinton), Clinton may make up less ground in the pledged delegate race than she appears to be banking on.
And if Barack Obama himself spends a week or more doing his brand of retail politics all around the state, it's entirely possible he'll take more delegates than her (even if he gets slightly less of the popular vote in the primary).